Across the nation, colleges and universities are bracing for what experts call the enrollment cliff, a dramatic drop in the number of high school graduates expected to enter college starting in 2025. The cause traces back to the 2008 recession, when declining birth rates set off a demographic chain reaction that is now catching up to higher education.
“It’s significant,” said Dean of Students Nicole Loyd. “The data tells us that the entire U.S. will see a 15% drop in high school graduates between 2025 and 2029.”
The impact, however, will not be evenly distributed. Experts expect regions like the Northeast and Midwest to experience the sharpest declines, while the Southeast and Southwest may remain steady, or even grow.
“For example,” said Loyd, “Pennsylvania is projected to be down 17%, but D.C. is expected to increase by 31%.”
For smaller private universities, this shift poses an especially daunting challenge.
Loyd reports that smaller private schools depend heavily on tuition, donations, and endowments. Unlike public institutions, they lack state appropriations and often have smaller endowments, making them more dependent on enrollment.
Moravian University’s leadership has been planning for this moment for over a decade.
“We have been preparing since 2013 for the demographic cliff by expanding into a university and adding graduate programs from master’s to doctorates,” said President Bryon Grigsby.
That move, he explained, diversified Moravian’s revenue streams and allowed the school to “continue its mission to educate all.”
Moravian’s School of Professional Studies and Innovation also plays a key role in adapting to the new landscape. It helps individuals with some college experience, or those who chose not to follow traditional paths, complete degrees and earn academic credentials. The university is also exploring new undergraduate and graduate programs in aviation, partnering with the Lehigh Valley Airport to train professionals in a fast-growing industry.
The strategy isn’t just about adding programs but also about geography.
Grisby reported that Moravian has already broken the 5,000-application mark and is expanding recruiting efforts into regions with population growth. Recruiters based in other states help attract new students to Moravian, including those who might never have considered a small university in Pennsylvania.
While some institutions are feeling the early effects of the cliff, Moravian remains comparatively stable. Grigsby explains that Moravian is in the top quarter of private schools in terms of financial resources, offers a diversified curriculum, and benefits from its location. The Lehigh Valley’s population density means a larger pool of potential students compared to rural private colleges, which struggle to draw from a limited area.
Grigsby said schools in their “final death spirals” are offering nearly full-tuition scholarships if students will pay room and board, a tactic unsustainable for long-term survival.
Despite the pressures, Moravian continues to emphasize value and innovation over panic.
“As long as Moravian remains innovative, relevant, and a leader in educational change, it will continue to weather these storms as it has since 1742,” Grigsby added.
That innovation includes embracing new technology, especially artificial intelligence. Grigsby said that now, every student needs to understand AI and how to use it competently in the workforce.
Grigsby reports that a year ago, only a few fields needed AI; now, every single person that employers hire needs to be competent in AI usage.
Moravian has implemented a tool called BoobleBox, an AI platform that allows students to use technology to assist with writing without letting it generate their papers entirely.
“It’s the best of both worlds,” said Grigsby. “Faculty who want to use AI in their classrooms can do so confidently, knowing it supports learning rather than replacing it.”
As for the future of higher education, Grigsby states that the challenge is bigger than enrollment numbers. The rise of AI, online learning, political polarization, and public skepticism about the value of college are reshaping the entire landscape.
“We’re at a pivotal point in the history of higher ed,” he said. “The next question is: what becomes the artifact of student learning in an age of AI? We’re in a liminal state.”
Even amid uncertainty, the message to students remains hopeful. “We’re the cleanest shirt in the dirty laundry pile right now,” said Grigsby.
“It’s not an easy road, but we’re way better off than so many of our peers. Our revenue continues to grow, and while expenses have risen, our programs remain relevant to what society needs.”
